The Natsbank prepares the next rise in price of hypothecary credits |
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| Monday, 07 July 2008 02:44 |
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More rigidly Next surprise to the real estate market also was more transparent it is presented in the form of the publication of the project of the decision of Natsbank "About modification of Position about an order of formation and use of a reserve for compensation of possible losses on credit operations of banks". Its essence in toughening of requirements to formation of bank reserves under problem credits. Besides, the structure of criteria of reference of clients to this or that category of solvency is reconsidered. To them it is supposed to add criterion of presence of an initial payment. In case of acceptance of such decision, all credits which have been given out without an initial payment, will be considered as "hopeless", no less than any without the mortgaging credits. To that will carry also the credits which have been given out to clients of a so-called category "In" - with an initial payment from 10 %, but less than 15 %. Besides, credits will concern "hopeless" with debts above 60 days (today – from 91 days), even if they. As it is known, all "hopeless" credits on norms Natsbank demand 100 %-s' reservations. On norms offered by the project at delay of payments for 11-20 days, the reservation factor will make 60 % (instead of 40 %) and even for an ideal case so-called «standard debts» it will increase about 2 % to 4 %. rigid enough initiative of Natsbank communicates experts with considerable growth of problem debts of banks under consumer credits. In opinion the vice-president of business «the Individual finance» Anna Tkachenko's "Diamantbanka", «hot» prompt growth of quantity of the given out consumer credits the bank sector demanded adequate intervention of a regulator. One of serious reasons can consider and anti-inflationary aspirations of Natsbank as the rise in prices in the country is in many respects initiated by excessive availability of consumer credits. First of all change of norms will concern the most mass and inexpensive forms of consumer crediting.« To a lesser degree given decision Natsbank will affect delivery of hypothecary credits, - Anna Tkachenko considers. - as a rule, all banks demand entering of an initial payment. Now some banks offer credits for habitation without the first payment. However take advantage of this offer those clients who on the security will give not only directly subject of the mortgage, but also one more object of the real estate »can only. Nevertheless, considerable toughening of a financial position of banks, decrease in their activity and change to the credit policy will inevitably affect and dynamics of rates of hypothecary crediting.
Besides, there is an innovation, которе will directly concern also those who will take the credit on the security of the real estate: Natsbank will oblige banks to demand from clients the written approval to granting by bank of the information on the borrower in bureau of credit stories. The one who will refuse, will be carried to the worst category of clients delivery of the credit for which will be for banks most expense and problem. Credits will rise in price In connection with future changes, bankers do not wait for an easy life. Neither for itself, nor for the clients. «Any toughening or administrative regulation of a risk-policy and norms of reservation conducts to decrease in profitableness and, as consequence, to rise in price of credits, - the Head of department of retail business Valery Patsuj confirms. - Hence, acceptance of the given decision by National Bank of Ukraine should be reflected in credit conditions». Considering that fact that derivation of money resources will reduce profitableness of productive actives as it directly reduces ROA and ROE by reserves, banks will have a necessity to compensate decrease in profitableness and they will be compelled to raise interest rates under credits, the expert considers. «Decision Natsbank, which project has been published, in our opinion, can provoke increase in interest rates under consumer credits within 2 – 5 percentage points in grivnas and 1 – 4 % – in US dollars and euro. On rates how many will increase – it will be clear in September – October when given decision Natsbank will come into force, and also the situation with a dollar exchange rate in relation to national monetary unit» will definitively clear up, - Anna Tkachenko believes. According to the experts, future toughening of specifications of Natsbank will negatively affect a condition and development of domestic bank system. «First of all, banks will cease to offer consumer credits without an initial payment, or cost of such credits considerably will increase. Also the cost increase will concern беззалоговых consumer credits. It will lead to reduction in demand for credits, and, as consequence, to reduction of volumes of crediting and decrease in rates of increase of bank system as a whole», - the director of department of retail business of Bank Natalia Bajdakova predicts. Complication of working conditions and decrease in volumes of crediting can cause leaving of some banks from the market of mass consumer crediting. And those who will leave, and those who remains, will be compelled to compensate the losses at the expense of toughening of conditions, including, and hypothecary crediting. Therefore it is necessary to expect growth of rates under hypothecary credits approximately in rate of increase of those and for other kinds of consumer crediting. |
| Last Updated ( Monday, 07 July 2008 03:05 ) |
The project of the decision of Natsbank published recently about toughening of requirements to formation of bank reserves under problem credits, at first sight, mortgages concerns to a lesser degree, than other forms of consumer crediting. But its introduction in action will inevitably cause appreciable increase of rates under hypothecary credits.